User:E43/UnF Analysis

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Foreword

Work in progress.

  • An analysis of elemental meta and its evolution based on Unite & Fight scores.
  • In other words, "was it hard to succeed in this particular GW?" Or, rather, "can I keep up with the speed of the meta?"
  • Estimates and final scores taken from User:EmiFox/Guild War Cutoffs.
  • Rate-of-change and final scores were additionally sourced from: https://twitter.com/noel_gbf and https://gran-matome.com.
  • The idea of this table is to analyze the average "strength" of an element at the time, as well as the growth rate of GW scorelines.
    • A general takeaway is that cutoffs / the effort required to hit a certain cutoff tier will, almost always, increase every GW.
  • A cutoff overshooting predictions suggests some sort of recent mechanic change, exceptionally broken character, or anomaly that complicated the race.
    • An overshoot of the 100-badge cutoff (i.e., top 35k / 50k / 70k...), a large score increaseany increase of about 30% or higher, or both, generally suggests a difficult GW to rank in. Predicted cutoffs should typically be higher than actual numbers.
    • Notes regarding specific GWs are below.

Data

Unite and Fight/2019 - Individual

Wiki link Type Adv 1k 30k 60k 100k 150k
42 - Jan 2019 Light Dark 763,973,416 287,052,035 171,912,967 102,460,977 53,107,089
Wiki link Type Adv 1k 35k 70k 120k 170k
43 - Feb 2019 Dark Light 941,095,959 285,444,103 163,630,966 90,270,782 44,672,676
Change +177,122,543 (123%) -1,607,932 (99%) -8,282,001 (95%) -12,190,195 (88%) -8,434,413 (84%)
44 - Apr 2019 Earth Wind 1,500,010,297 496,641,277 293,651,987 166,270,096 99,040,486
Estimated - 540,000,000 320,000,000 190,000,000 110,000,000
Change +558,914,338 (159%) +211,197,174 (174%) +130,021,021 (179%) +75,999,314 (184%) +54,367,810 (222%)
Wiki link Type Adv 2k 50k 100k 160k 250k 350k
45 - May 2019 Water Earth 1,213,594,145 393,842,508 191,538,020 93,716,447 31,263,135 10,211,139
Estimated - 400,000,000 200,000,000 100,000,000 35,000,000 15,000,000
Change -286,416,152 (81%) -102,798,769 (79%) -102,113,967 (65%) -72,553,649 (56%) -67,777,351 (32%) -
46 - July 2019 Fire Water 1,212,121,212 361,473,411 184,781,299 92,585,140 27,181,637 6,707,850
Estimated - 370,000,000 180,000,000 95,000,000 30,000,000 8,000,000
Change -1,472,933 (99%) -32,369,097 (92%) -6,756,721 (96%) -1,131,307 (99%) -4,081,498 (87%) -3,503,289 (66%)
47 - Sept 2019 Wind Fire 1,413,321,171 392,692,738 195,015,305 95,839,750 26,717,422 5,756,956
Estimated - 400,000,000 200,000,000 100,000,000 30,000,000 6,000,000
Change +201,199,959 (117%) +31,219,327 (109%) +10,234,006 (106%) +3,254,610 (104%) -464,215 (98%) -950,894 (86%)
PreviousGrowth compared to last GW with same elemental advantage +641,862,286November 2018 cutoff: 771,458,885
This tier was previously the 1k cutoff.
(183%)
+110,872,600November 2018 cutoff: 281,820,138
This tier was previously the 30k cutoff.
(153%)
+3,448,474November 2018 cutoff: 191,566,831
This tier was previously the 50k cutoff.
(102%)
-45,012,867November 2018 cutoff: 140,852,617
This tier was previously the 70k cutoff.
(68%)
-40,162,354November 2018 cutoff: 66,879,776
This tier was previously the 120k cutoff.
(40%)
-
48 - Nov 2019 Light Dark 1,341,542,613 440,600,777 211,363,510 97,860,992 25,546,143 5,451,886
Estimated - 410,000,000 200,000,000 95,000,000 25,000,000 5,500,000
Change -71,778,558 (95%) +47,908,039 (112%) +16,348,205 (108%) +2,021,242 (102%) -1,171,279 (96%) -305,090 (95%)
PreviousGrowth compared to last GW with same elemental advantage +577,569,197 (176%) +153,548,742 (153%) +39,450,543 (123%) -4,599,985 (96%) -27,560,946 (48%) -

Unite and Fight/2020 - Individual

Wiki link Type Adv 2k 50k 100k 160k 250k 350k
49 - Jan 2020 Dark Light 1,633,256,491 614,246,025 337,726,185 174,777,456 56,615,353 14,941,255
Estimated - 610,000,000 - - - -
Change +291,713,878 (122%) +173,645,248 (139%) +126,362,675 (160%) +76,916,464 (179%) +31,069,210 (222%) +9,489,389 (274%)
PreviousGrowth compared to last GW with same elemental advantage +692,160,532 (174%) +328,801,922 (215%) +174,095,219 (206%) +84,506,674 (194%) +11,942,677 (127%) -
Wiki link Type Adv 2k 70k 120k 160k 250k 350k
50 - Feb 2020 Earth Wind 1,619,047,349 473,233,935 250,721,593 155,181,296 47,325,033 11,199,035
Estimated - 495,000,000 265,000,000 160,000,000 50,000,000 10,000,000
Change -14,209,142 (99%) -141,012,090 (77%) -87,004,592 (74%) -19,596,169 (89%) -9,290,320 (84%) -3,742,220 (75%)
PreviousGrowth compared to last GW with same elemental advantage +119,037,052 (108%) -23,407,342 (95%) -42,930,394 (85%) -11,088,800 (93%) -51,715,453 (48%) -
51 - Apr 2020 Fire Water 1,977,349,603 626,688,400 373,891,179 255,480,277 104,473,434 33,175,595
Estimated - 620,000,000 380,000,000 260,000,000 110,000,000 35,000,000
Change +358,302,254 (122%) +153,454,465 (132%) +123,169,586 (149%) +100,298,981 (165%) +57,148,401 (221%) +21,976,560 (296%)
PreviousGrowth compared to last GW with same elemental advantage +765,228,391 (163%) +265,214,989 (173%) +189,109,880 (202%) +162,895,137 (276%) +77,291,797 (384%) +26,467,745 (495%)
52 - June 2020 Wind Fire 1,722,124,283 541,102,489 314,062,382 210,081,264 75,789,514 17,949,540
Estimated - 580,000,000 340,000,000 230,000,000 80,000,000 20,000,000
Change -255,225,320 (87%) -85,585,911 (86%) -59,828,797 (84%) -45,399,013 (82%) -28,683,920 (73%) -15,226,055 (54%)
PreviousGrowth compared to last GW with same elemental advantage +308,803,112 (122%) +148,409,751 (138%) +119,047,077 (161%) +114,241,514 (219%) +49,072,092 (284%) +12,192,584 (312%)

Notes

  • February 2020 cutoffs compared to April 2019:
    • Top 70k compared to April 2019 (when it was the second cutoff tier): +179,581,948 (161%)
    • Top 120k (previously the third cutoff tier): +84,451,497 (151%)
    • Top 35k (i.e., if the requirement for 100 badges was still this, you would have had to get this many honors): 585,084,630, +88,443,353 (118%)
    • Top 50k compared to January 2020 (i.e., if the 100-badge cutoff hadn't been expanded): 522,527,406, -91,718,619 (85%)
  • April 2020 cutoffs compared to July 2019:
    • Top 50k compared to July 2019 (i.e., if the 100-badge cutoff hadn't been expanded): 675,850,870, +314,377,459 (187%)

Comments

April 2019 -- Wind-advantage

  • Cutoffs spiked significantly from previous GWs. The individual 35k cutoff nearly doubled -- from 285m to approximately 496m.
  • First GW to introduce EX+ raids (20m HP), which dropped significantly more Bait Chunk square.jpg Bait Chunk on average.
  • Notable Wind tech introduced since last iteration:
  • Exceptionally high cutoffs (even compared to later GWs) suggest one or both of
    • An influx / return of players due to new content from the 5th Birthday / free rolls
    • The accessibility of Weapon s 1040016500.jpg Windhose and Class 300301 sw square.jpg Chrysaor enabled an easy EX / EX+ OTK for more players than usual

May 2019 -- Earth-advantage

July 2019 -- Water-advantage

September 2019 -- Fire-advantage

November 2019 -- Dark-advantage

  • Notable Dark tech introduced since last iteration:
  • First GW to introduce NM150, which sees a ~135% boost in honor per raid (from 2,650,000 to 3,600,000).
  • This was the first GW after the introduction of full auto (attack-only auto being renamed semi-auto). It's likely that the ability to simply farm AFK while doing other things made it simpler for much of the playerbase to use more of their resources efficiently.
  • It will be noted that Dark is an especially popular element for Soldier, often paired simply with Kolulu for Proto Bahamut enmity racing setups.
  • First GW since the May 2019 change to Unite and Fight Hero where the 2k cutoff decreased (if we consider that May 2019's cutoff was inflated due to the prelims extension):
    • Indication of a smaller gap between top-end / whale Dark versus high-end teams, compared to elements like Fire?
    • Or possibly a consequence of players simply electing to farm on full auto instead

January 2020 -- Light-advantage

February 2020 -- Wind-advantage

April 2020 -- Water-advantage

June 2020 -- Fire-advantage

August 2020 -- Earth-advantage

November 2020 -- Dark-advantage